UA 1st Draft

Between Aug-Dec 26 we will focus on English-led markets where deposit value is strongest, while India and South Africa give us the scale to keep acquisition efficient. With a hard blended CPA ceiling of $360, the plan is built to deliver around 1,389 first-time depositors without trading quality for volume.

$500K

Planned spend

$100K

Monthly average

≈1,389

FTD capacity

≤$360

Blended CPA ceiling

POWER.WIN NEW LAUNCH USER ACQUISITION · AUG–DEC 2026

Harden the platform.
Then buy the season.

Ten English-language markets, one creative stack, $500,000, against incumbents who already own the category. A capped proving budget takes the first hits and proves the platform survives them. Eighty-five per cent of the money goes to the eight markets that deposit, and lands when the season peaks.

TOTAL BUDGET

$500K

VALUE MARKETS

$425K 85%

PROVING BUDGET · CAPPED

$75K 15%

FIRST-TIME DEPOSITORS

1,389–1,511
at ceiling → at plan

BLENDED CPA

$331–360
at plan → at ceiling

WHY THESE TEN

One language, ten markets

Every market is English-native or English-fluent. One creative library, one support stack, one set of landing pages. No translation, no localisation team. That is how $500K covers ten countries instead of two.

WHO WE FIGHT

A red ocean, not a blue one

Stake, Roobet, BC.Game, Rollbit and Shuffle already own this category. We are not creating demand, we are taking share from operators with proven LTV and far deeper pockets. $500K cannot outspend them, so it has to out-position them.

FULL ALLOCATION · ALL TEN MARKETS · $500K

Shape of spend is each market's own monthly profile, August to December. Sorted by allocation. Share of deposit value is that market's share of all first-deposit value across the ten. Contested = density of established crypto operators already buying that market; red marks the four hardest fights.

MARKET	ALLOCATION	CPA CAP	FTDs	SHARE OF DEPOSIT VALUE	LIVE FROM	CONTESTED
THE EIGHT VALUE MARKETS · WHERE THE RETURN COMES FROM					$425K · 85%
United States US	$95K	$500	190	15%	August
Australia AU	$72K	$450	160	13%	August
United Kingdom UK	$62K	$400	155	12%	September
Norway NO	$52K	$450	116	9%	September
Canada CA	$48K	$350	137	11%	September
Finland FI	$40K	$360	111	9%	September
Slovenia SI	$30K	$430	70	5%	October
New Zealand NZ	$26K	$360	72	6%	October
Subtotal · eight value markets	$425K	$420 avg	1,011	80%
PLATFORM PROVING BUDGET · A LAUNCH COST, NOT A MARKET INVESTMENT					$75K · 15%
India IN	$45K	$150	300	12%	August
South Africa ZA	$30K	$150	200	8%	August
Subtotal · proving budget	$75K	$150 avg	500	20%
TOTAL · AT PLAN	$500K	$331 avg	1,511	100%		FEWER DOTS = OUR OPENING

Two cases, one budget. At plan, spend lands at each market's ceiling, the portfolio blends to $331 and returns 1,511 first-time depositors. If cost runs all the way to the $360 blended guardrail it returns 1,389 — that is the floor this plan is underwritten to. The share, mix and return-per-dollar charts below hold at both ends because they are ratios; only depositor counts move. The gap between the two cases is 8.8% of headroom against Q4 price inflation.

EXPECTED RETURN ON SPEND · DEPOSITS RETURNED PER $1, BY MARKET AND PHASE

All bars start at zero, so length is return. Solid = the low case, pale = the upside. Sorted by Q4 return. Launch phase carries the new-brand trust discount, a dead August and full-price bidding against incumbents.

MARKET	Q4 DRIVER	AUG–SEP	OCT–DEC
United States	NFL · World Series · NBA opens	0.4× – 0.6×	0.9× – 1.6×
Australia	Melbourne Cup · Boxing Day Test	0.3× – 0.5×	0.9× – 1.5×
Norway	Premier League · Christmas	0.3× – 0.5×	0.9× – 1.5×
United Kingdom	Premier League · Boxing Day	0.3× – 0.5×	0.9× – 1.4×
Finland	Liiga & NHL · Christmas	0.3× – 0.5×	0.8× – 1.4×
Canada	NHL · Grey Cup · NFL	0.3× – 0.5×	0.8× – 1.3×
Slovenia	Champions League · Christmas	0.2× – 0.4×	0.7× – 1.3×
New Zealand	Boxing Day cricket · racing	0.2× – 0.4×	0.7× – 1.2×
PROVING BUDGET · NOT BOUGHT FOR RETURN
India	Diwali · cricket	0.2× – 0.4×	0.5× – 0.9×
South Africa	Boxing Day Test · Christmas	0.2× – 0.4×	0.5× – 0.8×
PORTFOLIO	Full period 0.7× – 1.2×	0.3× – 0.5×	0.8× – 1.4×

00.5×1.0× BREAK-EVEN1.5×1.8×

Aug–Sep · launch discount, dead August, no trust yet Oct–Dec · season live, brand seasoned, repeat deposits landing Upside case Every value market can clear break-even in Q4. The launch phase is priced in.

WHAT COMES FIRST · SHARE OF EACH MONTH'S SPEND

Grey = the proving budget. Red = the eight value markets. The handover completes in two months.

35%

65%

69%

31%

92%

93%

AUG$40K

SEP$65K

OCT$120K

NOV$137K

DEC$138K

PROVING BUDGET, SHARE OF THAT MONTH

65%

31%

8%

7%

In August two thirds of the money is proving the platform. By October it is eight per cent. Only the United States and Australia open alongside it in August. The rest of the value markets switch on as it steps back, so the proving budget clears the way rather than competing for the money.

WHY TWO THIRDS OF THE DEPOSITORS BECOME FOUR FIFTHS OF THE VALUE

Width is how many depositors. Height is how deep each one deposits. The area is the deposit value.

Two thirds of the depositors, each depositing twice as deep, produce four fifths of the value. The 2.0× depth is the plan's one real assumption, and the height of that red block is exactly what August and September exist to test.

THE MONTH THE MONEY TURNS · SPEND vs DEPOSITS BACK

Grey = spent that month. Red = deposits returned that month, at the mid case of the ranges above. Aug–Sep lands at 0.38×, Oct–Dec at 1.10×, the full period at 0.95×.

$40K

$14K

$65K

$26K

$120K

$111K

$137K

$152K

$138K

$171K

AUGDead month in Europe. World Cup afterglow in US and Canada

SEPNFL and Premier League return. Affiliate deals close

OCTAll ten live. World Series, NBA tip-off, NHL drops

NOVMelbourne Cup · Diwali · Thanksgiving · Grey Cup

DECBoxing Day football and cricket. Peak trading

Spent Returned November is the crossover. Two months pay for the first three.

CAPPED · 15% OF BUDGET

Break the platform before a paying customer does

$75K

500 first-time depositors · India and South Africa

Capped at 15%. Sized to what it must prove.
Sixth largest line in the plan, at under half the United States.
Shrinks the moment it stops teaching us.

Success here is fraud caught, withdrawals cleared and funnel completion. Not depositors, and not deposit value.

THE OBJECTIVE

Product-market fit is the goal.

Prove the product. The funnel converts, the deposit clears, the player comes back.

Find the segment that holds. Stickiness, the aha moment, repeat-deposit rate, which cohort retains.

Earn the 2027 map. Which of ten markets has proven it deserves scale budget.

Build the assets. Proven creative, live affiliate relationships, a platform hardened under real load.

AUG–SEP DELIVERS

Crypto, skins and gift-card rails proven under real load
Casino and sportsbook integrated and production-ready
Fraud and bonus abuse hardened under real attack
Withdrawal reliability publicly evidenced
Affiliate contracts signed in the priority markets

GO / NO-GO BY 30 SEPTEMBER

Withdrawals clearing reliably at volume
Fraud contained to a measured, budgeted rate
Repeat-deposit signal visible in the first cohorts
Full stack stable through a complete match weekend
Distribution secured before the October spend opens

HOW MONEY MOVES AFTER OCTOBER

Spend follows return per dollar, never depositor count
Any market running above its CPA cap for two weeks is cut, not defended
Where incumbents outbid us we concede the auction and move to the under-contested markets
The proving budget shrinks first when money is needed elsewhere

Method. CPA figures are ceilings, not forecasts; at plan the portfolio blends to $331 against a $360 guardrail, returning ≈1,511 first-time depositors; if cost runs to the guardrail across every market it returns ≈1,389, which is the floor the plan is underwritten to. Depositor counts and blended CPA are stated as that range throughout; share, mix and return figures hold at both ends because they are ratios. The proving budget is capped at $75K and is treated as a launch cost rather than a market investment; its depositors are counted but are not the measure of its success. Return on spend is measured as gross deposits against media spend within the period, modelled as a range carrying a new-brand trust discount that decays through the window; it excludes NGR, retention beyond December and lifetime value. Contested density is a directional assessment of how many established crypto operators actively buy each market, not a share measurement. Share of deposit value is each market's share of total first-deposit value across the ten, using the working assumption that a value-market first deposit runs 2.0× the proving-ground average; percentages are rounded and sum to 100. Monthly allocation is a planning shape and will be revised against observed cost.

POWER.WINNEW LAUNCH DISTRIBUTION OF SPEND · AUG–DEC 2026

We buy audiences.
We don't rent rankings.

The same $500K as the market plan, cut by route instead of by market. Comparison placement is 8% — a presence, not a pillar, because position on those properties is bought and everybody in this room knows it. A quarter of the budget goes to creators and clippers instead: people who arrive with an audience already attached.

FIVE-MONTH ENVELOPE

$500K

CREATOR-LED

$125K 25%

LARGEST SINGLE ROUTE

19% creators, $95K

COMPARISON PLACEMENT

8% $40K

PORTFOLIO CPA CEILING

≤$360
≈1,389 FTD capacity

WHERE THE $500K ACTUALLY GOES

Eleven named routes, not five channel labels. Reds buy the audience, darks are discovery and testing, greys are paid scale.

BUY THE AUDIENCE$280K · 56%

Creators and streamers$95K19%

Offer distribution and offerwalls$50K10%

Comparison and listicle placement$40K8%

Clippers — IG, TikTok, Shorts$30K6%

Crypto publishers, bought direct$25K5%

Telegram and X community$25K5%

BitcoinTalk$15K3%

DISCOVERY AND TESTING$110K · 22%

Pop, push, native and grey media$85K17%

Telegram bot advertising$25K5%

PAID SCALE$110K · 22%

Meta paid social$60K12%

Google search, display, programmatic$50K10%

Comparison placement is deliberately the eighth-largest line, not the first. Position on those properties is rented, priced by whoever owns the ranking, and resold to the next operator the following month. We hold a minimum credible presence there and put the rest into audiences that come with the partner: creators at 19%, clippers at 6%, crypto publishers bought direct at 5%. The three heaviest lines sit in three different disciplines, so no single route failing takes more than a fifth of the budget with it.

Method. These route-level figures are a working allocation, not a fixed commitment. They revise the earlier channel-level plan by moving weight out of rented publisher position and into audiences that arrive with the partner. Shares apply to the cumulative August to December budget and do not require identical monthly spending. The $360 acquisition-cost ceiling is a portfolio figure and is not assigned as a separate target to any single route.

UA 1st Draft

Harden the platform.Then buy the season.

Break the platform before a paying customer does

Product-market fit is the goal.

We buy audiences.We don't rent rankings.

Harden the platform.
Then buy the season.

We buy audiences.
We don't rent rankings.